← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Tonusluoğlu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 65% | 64% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.89 | value: +8% |
| Gaziantep win | 14% | 14% | 6.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep +1.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Fenerbahce +1.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.48 |
| Under | 36% | 2.72 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | İsmail Yüksek · Fenerbahce |
| 10' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Boateng · Gaziantep |
| 13' | ⚽ | Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep |
| 15' | 🟨 | Filip Kostić · Fenerbahce |
| 20' | 🟨 | Anel Husić · Gaziantep |
| 40' | 🟨 | Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep |
| 66' | 🟨 | Bruno Viana · Gaziantep |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce |
| 69' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · Fenerbahce |
| 72' | ⚽ | Fred · Fenerbahce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gaziantep | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Gaziantep Stadyumu |
| coach days | 421.00 | 329.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 4.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1555.99 | 1872.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.64 | -0.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 1.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.80 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.63 |
| league points | 49.00 | 88.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 12.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 21.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 1.75 |
| solidity v1 | -0.69 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 28.74 | 30.09 |
| state index | -0.07 | 1.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 2.38 |