← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 26, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Y. Kol
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodrumspor win | 38% | 29% | 2.58 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 39% | 3.00 | value: +18% |
| Samsunspor win | 30% | 32% | 3.33 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor −0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Bodrumspor −0.25 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.53 |
| Over | 37% | 2.61 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Ahmet Aslan · Bodrumspor |
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Olivier Ntcham · Samsunspor |
| 38' | ⚽ | Landry Dimata · Samsunspor |
| 75' | 🟨 | Olivier Ntcham · Samsunspor |
| 80' | 🟨 | Arlind Ajeti · Bodrumspor |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rick Van Drongelen · Samsunspor |
| 84' | 🟨 | Landry Dimata · Samsunspor |
| 88' | 🟨 | Carlo Holse · Samsunspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fredy · Bodrumspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Soner Gönül · Samsunspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bodrumspor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu |
| coach days | 207.00 | 299.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1529.35 | 1551.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.60 | -50.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.94 | 0.64 |
| league points | 45.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 4.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.16 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | -1.01 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 29.41 | 28.91 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.64 |