← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 25, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kayatepe
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 78% | 66% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 22% | 7.16 | value: +54% |
| Hatayspor win | 8% | 12% | 11.77 | value: +44% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Besiktas −2 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Hatayspor −2 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 76% | 1.26 |
| Under | 24% | 4.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Abdulkadir Parmak · Hatayspor |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · Besiktas |
| 38' | 🟨 | Joelson Fernandes · Hatayspor |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Ciro Immobile · Besiktas |
| 53' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Besiktas |
| 59' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · Besiktas |
| 78' | ⚽ | Keny Arroyo · Besiktas |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Besiktas | Hatayspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Tüpraş Stadyumu |
| coach days | 114.00 | 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1600.10 | 1369.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.76 | -17.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.10 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 54.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | 0.79 | -2.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 29.41 | 28.39 |
| state index | -0.46 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 2.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.35 |