← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 21, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Karaoğlan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor win | 39% | 36% | 2.48 | fair |
| Samsunspor win | 32% | 36% | 3.13 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Alanyaspor −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.77 |
| Over | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Yunus Emre Çift · Samsunspor |
| 9' | ⚽ | Yusuf Özdemir · Alanyaspor |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ui-Jo Hwang · Alanyaspor |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tonny Vilhena · Alanyaspor |
| 54' | 🟨 | Nuno Lima · Alanyaspor |
| 58' | 🟨 | Fidan Aliti · Alanyaspor |
| 64' | 🟨 | Richard Cândido · Alanyaspor |
| 67' | 🟨 | Zeki Yavru · Samsunspor |
| 77' | 🟨 | Carlo Holse · Samsunspor |
| 87' | 🟨 | Rick Van Drongelen · Samsunspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alanyaspor | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | GAIN Park Stadium |
| coach days | 51.00 | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1504.73 | 1561.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.14 | -60.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| league points | 40.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 15.27 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.66 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -0.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.31 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.08 | 28.44 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 0.92 |