← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 20, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Çakır
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 84% | 81% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 13% | 8.81 | value: +18% |
| Kayserispor win | 5% | 6% | 22.24 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor −2.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Fenerbahce −2.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 1.35 |
| Under | 28% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Ramazan Civelek · Kayserispor |
| 36' | ⚽ | Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce |
| 48' | ⚽ | Duckens Nazon · Kayserispor |
| 56' | 🟨 | Fred · Fenerbahce |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ali Karimi · Kayserispor |
| 64' | ⚽ | Allan Saint-Maximin · Fenerbahce |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ramazan Civelek · Kayserispor |
| 90' | ⚽ | Talha Sariarslan · Kayserispor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 4 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fenerbahce | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi |
| coach days | 323.00 | 109.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.67 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1880.65 | 1561.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.13 | 53.05 |
| eye test v1 | 1.46 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.81 |
| league points | 87.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.42 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.50 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 0.30 | 1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 30.35 | 30.92 |
| state index | 1.62 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.24 | 1.94 |