← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 20, 10:30 AM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Buyuksehyr win | 57% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.15 |
| Gaziantep win | 19% | 5.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Buyuksehyr −0.75 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Gaziantep −0.75 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.67 |
| Under | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.