← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Mon, Apr 14, 05:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Eyupspor win | 81% | 64% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 22% | 8.04 | value: +73% |
| Ad. Demirspor win | 7% | 14% | 15.35 | value: +122% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Eyupspor −2 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Ad. Demirspor −2 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 73% | 1.31 |
| Under | 27% | 3.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.