← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: Y. Kol
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 63% | 65% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.55 | fair |
| Sivasspor win | 15% | 13% | 6.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce +1 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Sivasspor +1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.60 |
| Under | 40% | 2.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Charis Charisis · Sivasspor |
| 42' | ⚽ | Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce |
| 45' | 🟨 | Murat Paluli · Sivasspor |
| 47' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · Fenerbahce |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mert Müldür · Fenerbahce |
| 57' | ⚽ | Efkan Bekiroğlu · Sivasspor |
| 75' | 🟨 | Bright Osayi-Samuel · Fenerbahce |
| 85' | 🟥 | Uroš Radaković · Sivasspor |
| 90' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · Fenerbahce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sivasspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu |
| coach days | 43.00 | 316.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 3.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1507.16 | 1876.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.01 | -3.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 1.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.80 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| league points | 38.00 | 84.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 62.20 |
| rest days | 8.23 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 2.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | 1.53 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 30.73 | 30.20 |
| state index | 0.52 | 1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 2.18 |