← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Şansalan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep win | 58% | 53% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 26% | 4.49 | value: +16% |
| Hatayspor win | 20% | 21% | 4.93 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hatayspor −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Gaziantep −1 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.42 |
| Under | 33% | 2.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Cemali Sertel · Hatayspor |
| 31' | 🟨 | Recep Burak Yılmaz · Hatayspor |
| 38' | ⚽ | Vincent Aboubakar · Hatayspor |
| 44' | 🟨 | Anel Husić · Gaziantep |
| 45' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Boateng · Gaziantep |
| 47' | 🟨 | Abdulkadir Parmak · Hatayspor |
| 59' | ⚽ | Halil Dervişoğlu · Gaziantep |
| 80' | 🟨 | Görkem Sağlam · Hatayspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gaziantep | Hatayspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | Gaziantep Stadyumu |
| coach days | 408.00 | 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1565.31 | 1380.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.44 | 4.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.30 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.69 |
| league points | 46.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 5.83 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.57 | -2.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.84 | 27.18 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 2.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 0.96 |