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Fenerbahce 4–1 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 6, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Türkmen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win64%1.48
Draw20%4.78
Trabzonspor win16%6.84

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor −1.2553%1.82
Fenerbahce −1.2547%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.64
Under41%2.35

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Alexander Djiku · Fenerbahce
13'🟨Pedro Malheiro · Trabzonspor
18'🟨Sofyan Amrabat · Fenerbahce
45'⚽Denis Drăguş · Trabzonspor
51'⚽ (pen)Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce
60'🟨John Lundstram · Trabzonspor
60'⚽Milan Škriniar · Fenerbahce
64'⚽Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce
77'⚽Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce
88'🟨Stefan Savić · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
21Shots13
8On target3
2Corners3
8Fouls19
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.680.67
cards avg (last 5)0.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi
coach days
309.00
36.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.12
corner diff avg (last 5)3.601.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.203.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.952.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.17
dominance (last 5)0.690.58
elo1832.271605.83
elo momentum (last 5)-3.775.36
eye test v11.420.05
eye trend v1-0.130.02
first sub minute (last 10)54.0062.10
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.481.42
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.30
keeper form v10.760.80
league points81.0046.00
league rank1.008.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.4083.80
possession avg (last 5)61.8057.60
rest days8.948.13
scorer concentration0.280.31
season ppg2.381.44
shot diff avg (last 5)9.004.20
shots for avg (last 5)16.4014.80
skill v11.410.80
solidity v10.400.38
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.603.80
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.603.80
squad age28.6728.88
state index1.280.43
sterile dominance v10.270.57
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.330.25
threat rate (last 5)0.330.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40
xg against avg (last 5)0.951.24
xg for avg (last 5)2.221.45