← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 6, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Pakkan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eyupspor win | 52% | 51% | 1.83 | fair |
| Hatayspor win | 24% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.23 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hatayspor +0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Eyupspor +0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.51 |
| Under | 37% | 2.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Luccas Claro · Eyupspor |
| 23' | ⚽ | Mame Thiam · Eyupspor |
| 37' | 🟨 | Funsho Bamgboye · Hatayspor |
| 49' | 🟨 | Cemali Sertel · Hatayspor |
| 61' | 🟨 | Prince Ampem · Eyupspor |
| 63' | 🟨 | Emre Mor · Eyupspor |
| 66' | 🟨 | Chandrel Massanga · Hatayspor |
| 76' | 🟨 | Melih Kabasakal · Eyupspor |
| 85' | 🟨 | Caner Erkin · Eyupspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hatayspor | Eyupspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| venue | Mersin Stadyumu |
| coach days | 95.00 | 736.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 1.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1387.54 | 1539.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.92 | -40.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 57.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.47 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 21.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 5.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -1.96 | -1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.10 | 29.47 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.55 | 1.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.39 |