← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 4, 05:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Kayserispor win | 68% | 29% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 25% | 5.36 | value: +36% |
| Ad. Demirspor win | 13% | 46% | 7.45 | value: +239% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Ad. Demirspor +1.5 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Kayserispor +1.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.50 |
| Under | 36% | 2.77 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.