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Bodrumspor 2–4 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Fri, Mar 28, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Karaoğlan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win66%1.40
Draw20%4.76
Bodrumspor win13%8.66

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bodrumspor +1.2552%1.96
Fenerbahce +1.2548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.72
Under44%2.18

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Musah Mohammed · Bodrumspor
5'⚽Milan Škriniar · Fenerbahce
31'⚽ (pen)George Pușcaș · Bodrumspor
32'⚽Oğuz Aydın · Fenerbahce
36'⚽Sebastian Szymański · Fenerbahce
45'⚽ (pen)Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce
56'🟨Jonathan Okita · Bodrumspor
85'⚽Fredy · Bodrumspor
90'🟨Allan Saint-Maximin · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score4
14Shots16
8On target10
4Corners1
10Fouls8
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBodrumsporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.640.71
cards avg (last 5)0.800.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGrey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu
coach days178.00300.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.14
corner diff avg (last 5)1.203.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.802.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.713.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.000.02
dominance (last 5)0.530.67
elo1510.761826.68
elo momentum (last 5)34.91-7.16
eye test v10.090.74
eye trend v10.50-0.33
first sub minute (last 10)59.8051.40
form points (last 5)11.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.631.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.50
keeper form v10.880.67
league points41.0078.00
league rank12.001.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8081.20
possession avg (last 5)41.0055.60
rest days12.2912.00
scorer concentration0.360.29
season ppg1.212.36
shot diff avg (last 5)1.207.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.8014.80
skill v1-0.610.68
solidity v11.501.25
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.605.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.20
squad age—30.48
state index0.541.12
sterile dominance v1-1.00-0.22
threat rate (last 10)0.280.31
threat rate (last 3)0.350.37
threat rate (last 5)0.290.33
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80
xg against avg (last 5)0.720.62
xg for avg (last 5)1.511.86