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Hatayspor 3–2 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Ç. Altay

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor win42%2.25
Hatayspor win29%3.44
Draw29%3.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor +0.2550%1.93
Hatayspor +0.2550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.89
Under48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Bengali-Fodé Koita · Sivasspor
30'⚽Bilal Boutobba · Hatayspor
55'⚽Recep Burak Yılmaz · Hatayspor
58'⚽Rey Manaj · Sivasspor
65'⚽Guy-Marcelin Kilama · Hatayspor
67'🟨Uğur Çiftçi · Sivasspor
74'🟨Recep Burak Yılmaz · Hatayspor
78'🟨Görkem Sağlam · Hatayspor
78'🟥Francisco Calvo · Hatayspor
78'🟨Murat Paluli · Sivasspor
79'🟨Chandrel Massanga · Hatayspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
15Shots22
8On target8
8Corners9
13Fouls7
3Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHataysporSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.17
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.420.35
cards avg (last 5)3.002.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMersin Stadyumu
coach days
74.00
15.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.15
congestion 21d1.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.402.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.721.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.12
dominance (last 5)0.370.47
elo1365.651482.80
elo momentum (last 5)12.62-7.65
eye test v1-0.58-0.89
eye trend v1-0.31-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)60.1050.10
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.431.66
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.670.74
league points18.0031.00
league rank21.0020.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.0010.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2079.20
possession avg (last 5)49.2050.40
rest days7.817.10
scorer concentration0.170.18
season ppg0.581.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.60-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.2010.00
skill v1-0.39-0.18
solidity v1-0.850.36
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.402.60
state index-0.47-0.41
sterile dominance v10.460.50
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.190.21
threat rate (last 5)0.190.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.970.98
xg for avg (last 5)0.760.90