← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Y. Kol
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goztep win | 54% | 35% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +8% |
| Eyupspor win | 20% | 36% | 4.92 | value: +78% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Eyupspor −0.75 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Goztep −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Lasse Nielsen · Goztep |
| 24' | 🟨 | Luccas Claro · Eyupspor |
| 33' | 🟨 | Kuryu Matsuki · Goztep |
| 35' | 🟨 | Mame Thiam · Eyupspor |
| 44' | 🟨 | Emre Mor · Eyupspor |
| 55' | 🟨 | İsmail Köybaşı · Goztep |
| 65' | ⚽ | Tayfur Bingöl · Eyupspor |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Rômulo · Goztep |
| 74' | 🟨 | Tayfur Bingöl · Eyupspor |
| 74' | 🟨 | Tayfur Bingöl · Eyupspor |
| 74' | 🟥 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Goztep | Eyupspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| venue | Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu |
| Tayfur Bingöl · Eyupspor |
| 75' | 🟨 | Umut Meraş · Eyupspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Novatus Miroshi · Goztep |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 501.00 | 715.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1500.38 | 1573.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.56 | -37.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 42.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | 0.60 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.21 | 29.80 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.47 |