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Rizespor 0–2 Bodrumspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 16, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: K. Sağlam

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win48%2.03
Draw30%3.20
Bodrumspor win22%4.58

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bodrumspor −0.553%1.88
Rizespor −0.547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.72
Over44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Samet Akaydın · Rizespor
22'⚽Fredy · Bodrumspor
28'🟨Pedro Brazão · Bodrumspor
40'🟨Samet Akaydın · Rizespor
40'🟥Samet Akaydın · Rizespor
45'🟨Ibrahim Olawoyin · Rizespor
49'🟨Muhamed Buljubašić · Rizespor
53'🟨Uzeyir Ergun · Bodrumspor
62'⚽Enis Bardhi · Bodrumspor
67'🟨Altin Zeqiri · Rizespor
80'🟨Diogo Sousa

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
6Shots14
2On target6
5Corners7
18Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporBodrumspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.760.62
cards avg (last 5)1.800.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
· Bodrumspor
coach days654.00166.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.405.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.752.71
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.00
dominance (last 5)0.460.46
elo1482.891493.65
elo momentum (last 5)19.6623.12
eye test v1-0.10-0.42
eye trend v1-0.000.39
first sub minute (last 10)57.6059.00
form points (last 5)6.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.52
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v10.610.86
league points40.0038.00
league rank13.0014.00
matches since blank10.002.00
matches since clean sheet17.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4070.40
possession avg (last 5)47.6041.80
rest days7.908.71
scorer concentration0.500.42
season ppg1.181.15
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.4010.60
skill v1-0.01-0.79
solidity v1-0.301.63
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.40
state index0.010.22
sterile dominance v1-0.05-0.79
threat rate (last 10)0.250.27
threat rate (last 3)0.210.30
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.600.65
xg for avg (last 5)1.531.41