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Eyupspor 2–1 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 9, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Karaoğlan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eyupspor win44%2.19
Draw28%3.40
Konyaspor win27%3.56

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eyupspor −0.2552%1.88
Konyaspor −0.2548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.90
Over49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽ (pen)Emre Akbaba · Eyupspor
23'🟨Emre Mor · Eyupspor
45'🟨Oğulcan Ülgün · Konyaspor
49'🟨Robin Yalçın · Eyupspor
58'⚽Muhammet Tunahan Tasci · Konyaspor
76'⚽Umut Bozok · Eyupspor
90'🟨Robin Yalçın · Eyupspor
90'🟨Umut Bozok · Eyupspor
90'🟨Mame Thiam · Eyupspor
90'🟨Luccas Claro · Eyupspor
90'🟥Robin Yalçın

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots10
5On target3
5Corners5
19Fouls12
6Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEyupsporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.650.67
cards avg (last 5)2.803.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRecep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu
· Eyupspor
90'🟨Blaž Kramer · Konyaspor
90'🟨Umut Nayir · Konyaspor
coach days708.00159.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.713.92
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.10
dominance (last 5)0.440.51
elo1551.571509.34
elo momentum (last 5)-39.502.72
eye test v10.220.02
eye trend v1-0.290.22
first sub minute (last 10)57.3060.80
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.27
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v10.770.61
league points45.0038.00
league rank5.0013.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0074.00
possession avg (last 5)54.0048.00
rest days6.006.00
scorer concentration0.320.23
season ppg1.551.23
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.001.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.6012.20
skill v10.56-0.27
solidity v1-0.610.27
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.40
state index-0.47-0.12
sterile dominance v10.85-0.31
threat rate (last 10)0.220.23
threat rate (last 3)0.170.23
threat rate (last 5)0.200.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.681.12
xg for avg (last 5)1.321.44