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Trabzonspor 1–2 Hatayspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 8, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Akarsu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win68%1.40
Draw19%5.30
Hatayspor win13%8.03

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor −1.2553%1.81
Hatayspor −1.2547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over65%1.48
Under35%2.73

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Görkem Sağlam · Hatayspor
26'🟨Guy-Marcelin Kilama · Hatayspor
31'🟨Oleksandr Zubkov · Trabzonspor
33'🟨Francisco Calvo · Hatayspor
42'⚽Oleksandr Zubkov · Trabzonspor
49'🟨Görkem Sağlam · Hatayspor
65'⚽Chandrel Massanga · Hatayspor
83'🟨Okay Yokuşlu · Trabzonspor
89'🟨Recep Burak Yılmaz · Hatayspor
90'🟨Rui Pedro · Hatayspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
23Shots4
4On target2
7Corners1
13Fouls13
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporHatayspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.650.52
cards avg (last 5)2.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePapara Park
coach days
7.00
66.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.406.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.621.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.12
dominance (last 5)0.450.38
elo1589.261348.66
elo momentum (last 5)-8.42-8.31
eye test v1-0.410.02
eye trend v1-0.27-0.27
first sub minute (last 10)59.2062.30
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.731.43
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v1—0.67
league points39.0015.00
league rank11.0021.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4077.00
possession avg (last 5)56.0047.60
rest days5.1915.02
scorer concentration0.320.19
season ppg1.390.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.80-7.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.6010.40
skill v10.53-0.36
solidity v1-0.32-1.61
sot against avg (last 5)4.606.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.204.60
squad age27.20—
state index0.32-0.92
sterile dominance v10.84-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.24
threat rate (last 5)0.210.23
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.692.14
xg for avg (last 5)1.201.04