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Goztep 2–2 Samsunspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Mon, Mar 3, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: O. Çakır

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep win52%1.83
Draw28%3.40
Samsunspor win20%5.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep −0.553%1.84
Samsunspor −0.547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.70
Over43%2.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨İsmail Köybaşı · Goztep
29'🟨Lasse Nielsen · Goztep
44'🟨Carlo Holse · Samsunspor
45'⚽Novatus Miroshi · Goztep
51'⚽Juan Santos da Silva · Goztep
67'⚽Kingsley Schindler · Samsunspor
78'🟨Kubilay Kanatsızkuş · Goztep
90'🟨Doğan Erdoğan · Goztep
90'⚽Rick Van Drongelen · Samsunspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots8
3On target2
1Corners2
15Fouls7
4Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGoztepSamsunspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.210.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.610.52
cards avg (last 5)1.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGürsel Aksel Stadyumu
coach days488.00245.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.15
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.12
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.912.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.11
dominance (last 5)0.660.47
elo1492.711582.73
elo momentum (last 5)-15.57-36.89
eye test v10.46-0.32
eye trend v1-0.550.42
first sub minute (last 10)61.6065.40
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.930.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.45
keeper form v1—0.69
league points41.0055.00
league rank7.004.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4077.80
possession avg (last 5)49.2051.00
rest days8.299.06
scorer concentration0.190.22
season ppg1.521.90
shot diff avg (last 5)9.20-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)18.2011.60
skill v1-0.15-0.12
solidity v10.890.20
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.303.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.80
state index0.04-0.29
sterile dominance v1-1.350.21
threat rate (last 10)0.380.24
threat rate (last 3)0.330.25
threat rate (last 5)0.380.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.40
xg against avg (last 5)0.911.01
xg for avg (last 5)1.981.09