← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Mar 2, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Türkmen
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 77% | 79% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 15% | 7.00 | value: +4% |
| Antalyaspor win | 8% | 6% | 12.93 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fenerbahce −1.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Antalyaspor −1.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.47 |
| Under | 35% | 2.73 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 3 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi |