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Besiktas 2–0 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Mar 1, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Meler

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win62%1.53
Draw21%4.67
Kayserispor win17%5.98

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas −153%1.86
Kayserispor −147%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.57
Under39%2.51

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Carlos Mané · Kayserispor
27'🟨Mehdi Bourabia · Kayserispor
45'⚽João Mário · Besiktas
90'⚽ (pen)Semih Kılıçsoy · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots8
6On target2
4Corners5
8Fouls15
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.51
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.700.74
cards avg (last 5)1.003.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueTüpraş Stadyumu
coach days59.0059.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.11
corner diff avg (last 5)2.000.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.781.52
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.11
dominance (last 5)0.690.49
elo1610.561461.14
elo momentum (last 5)33.9516.63
eye test v10.120.58
eye trend v10.030.34
first sub minute (last 10)49.4060.30
form points (last 5)10.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.260.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.780.70
league points42.0029.00
league rank6.0019.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.6073.00
possession avg (last 5)51.4042.00
rest days8.026.29
scorer concentration0.250.23
season ppg1.561.07
shot diff avg (last 5)8.80-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.0011.80
skill v10.66-0.32
solidity v10.87-0.22
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.40
squad age29.86—
state index0.93-0.18
sterile dominance v10.43-0.87
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.280.25
threat rate (last 5)0.230.28
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.151.37
xg for avg (last 5)1.461.86