← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 23, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Karaoğlan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor win | 59% | 62% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.17 | fair |
| Gaziantep win | 18% | 16% | 5.47 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Trabzonspor −1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.72 |
| Under | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Stefan Savić · Trabzonspor |
| 45' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · Trabzonspor |
| 45' | ⚽ | Edin Višća · Trabzonspor |
| 58' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · Trabzonspor |
| 77' | ⚽ | Semih Güler · Gaziantep |
| 78' | 🟨 | Anel Husić · Gaziantep |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trabzonspor | Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Papara Park |
| coach days | 175.00 | 359.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1612.63 | 1546.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.13 | -8.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| league points | 36.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.77 | -0.01 |
| solidity v1 | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.78 | 27.95 |
| state index | 0.84 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 0.96 |