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Hatayspor 1–0 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 16, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Kayatepe

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win42%2.29
Hatayspor win31%3.16
Draw27%3.56

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor +0.2550%1.97
Alanyaspor +0.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.77
Under45%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'🟨Guy-Marcelin Kilama · Hatayspor
31'🟨Chandrel Massanga · Hatayspor
33'🟨Francisco Calvo · Hatayspor
38'🟨Loide Augusto · Alanyaspor
56'⚽Funsho Bamgboye · Hatayspor
65'🟨Nuno Lima · Alanyaspor
72'🟨Joelson Fernandes · Hatayspor
90'🟨Visar Bekaj · Hatayspor
90'🟨Loide Augusto · Alanyaspor
90'🟥Loide Augusto · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots16
5On target4
3Corners6
16Fouls16
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHataysporAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.530.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.05
box share (last 5)0.550.52
cards avg (last 5)1.403.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMersin Stadyumu
coach days
46.00
107.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.582.32
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.17
dominance (last 5)0.350.45
elo1339.841552.83
elo momentum (last 5)-12.989.09
eye test v1-0.02-0.53
eye trend v10.270.17
first sub minute (last 10)65.5062.00
form points (last 5)1.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)3.202.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.93
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.620.56
league points12.0034.00
league rank21.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet20.001.00
matches since win15.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4075.00
possession avg (last 5)44.8047.80
rest days8.736.90
scorer concentration0.200.32
season ppg0.431.26
shot diff avg (last 5)-9.80-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.6010.60
skill v1-0.53-0.41
solidity v1-2.43-1.78
sot against avg (last 5)6.606.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.40
state index-1.60-0.09
sterile dominance v1-0.26-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.230.23
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.00
xg against avg (last 5)2.532.14
xg for avg (last 5)0.931.14