← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Aydın
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas win | 50% | 43% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.80 | value: +3% |
| Trabzonspor win | 25% | 30% | 4.11 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Besiktas −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Trabzonspor −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.57 |
| Under | 39% | 2.51 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Simon Banza · Trabzonspor |
| 44' | 🟨 | Emirhan Topçu · Besiktas |
| 53' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Besiktas |
| 56' | 🟨 | Arthur Masuaku · Besiktas |
| 65' | ⚽ (og) | Arseniy Batagov · Besiktas |
| 85' | 🟨 | John Lundstram · Trabzonspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefan Savić · Trabzonspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Edin Višća · Trabzonspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Besiktas | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Tüpraş Stadyumu |
| coach days | 45.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.14 | 1.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1597.63 | 1621.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.01 | 20.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.70 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.78 |
| league points | 36.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | 0.87 |
| solidity v1 | 0.87 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.18 | 29.17 |
| state index | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.50 |