⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Gaziantep 2–1 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 15, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: O. Ergün

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep win48%2.00
Draw26%3.67
Sivasspor win25%4.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sivasspor −0.550%1.94
Gaziantep −0.550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.79
Under46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Christophe Lungoyi · Gaziantep
-5'🟨Ziya Erdal · Sivasspor
26'⚽ (pen)Rey Manaj · Sivasspor
29'🟨Charis Charisis · Sivasspor
33'⚽Kacper Kozłowski · Gaziantep
37'🟨Badou Ndiaye · Gaziantep
37'🟨Uğur Çiftçi · Sivasspor
45'🟨Emrah Başsan · Sivasspor
55'🟨Noah Sonko Sundberg · Sivasspor
76'🟨Rey Manaj · Sivasspor
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots10
6On target2
6Corners2
20Fouls15
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.580.70
cards avg (last 5)1.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKalyon Stadyumu
Semih Güler
· Gaziantep
90'🟨Deian Sorescu · Gaziantep
90'⚽Arda Kızıldağ · Gaziantep
coach days351.0076.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.60-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)8.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.221.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.15
dominance (last 5)0.460.46
elo1506.651490.45
elo momentum (last 5)-14.12-21.75
eye test v1-0.14-0.16
eye trend v1-0.170.33
first sub minute (last 10)52.0059.10
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.60
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.740.71
league points33.0027.00
league rank13.0018.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.005.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2083.40
possession avg (last 5)47.0047.20
rest days11.736.77
scorer concentration0.220.21
season ppg1.271.04
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.6011.00
skill v1-0.300.09
solidity v10.15-0.98
sot against avg (last 5)4.205.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.00
squad age31.06—
state index-0.30-0.69
sterile dominance v1-0.150.24
threat rate (last 10)0.260.24
threat rate (last 3)0.280.23
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.411.76
xg for avg (last 5)0.951.12