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Alanyaspor 0–2 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 9, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Aydın

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win60%1.57
Draw21%4.44
Alanyaspor win18%5.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce +151%1.91
Alanyaspor +149%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.52
Under37%2.62

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Fidan Aliti · Alanyaspor
22'⚽Sebastian Szymański · Fenerbahce
35'🟨Milan Škriniar · Fenerbahce
42'⚽Anderson Talisca · Fenerbahce
48'🟨Yusuf Özdemir · Alanyaspor
50'🟨Sergio Córdova · Alanyaspor
60'🟨Sofyan Amrabat · Fenerbahce
87'🟨Dušan Tadić · Fenerbahce
89'🟨Sebastian Szymański · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Richard Cândido · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
12Shots8
3On target5
2Corners3
17Fouls13
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.550.74
cards avg (last 5)2.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGAIN Park Stadium
coach days100.00253.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d4.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.206.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.602.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.408.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.003.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.18
dominance (last 5)0.450.70
elo1560.121817.42
elo momentum (last 5)17.235.96
eye test v1-0.271.24
eye trend v10.09-0.02
first sub minute (last 10)64.3056.40
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.402.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.831.27
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.55
keeper form v10.710.72
league points34.0063.00
league rank9.001.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8078.80
possession avg (last 5)46.8055.00
rest days7.006.88
scorer concentration0.320.28
season ppg1.312.42
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.6012.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.6019.80
skill v1-0.411.26
solidity v1-1.480.40
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.006.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.006.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.006.40
squad age—30.86
state index0.311.10
sterile dominance v1-0.12-0.11
threat rate (last 10)0.240.27
threat rate (last 3)0.250.30
threat rate (last 5)0.230.30
venue ppg (last 5)3.002.20
xg against avg (last 5)2.010.89
xg for avg (last 5)1.222.40