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Kayserispor 3–2 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Feb 8, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Ç. Altay

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kayserispor win39%2.47
Konyaspor win32%3.14
Draw29%3.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor −0.2554%1.81
Kayserispor −0.2546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.88
Over48%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Nikola Boranijašević · Konyaspor
14'⚽Duckens Nazon · Kayserispor
21'🟨Adil Demirbağ · Konyaspor
23'⚽Miguel Cardoso · Kayserispor
45'🟨Arif Kocaman · Kayserispor
45'⚽Danijel Aleksić · Konyaspor
52'🟨Hasan Ali Kaldırım · Kayserispor
52'🟨Muhammet Tunahan Tasci · Konyaspor
55'⚽Duckens Nazon · Kayserispor
69'⚽Blaž Kramer · Konyaspor
70'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
14Shots18
8On target7
4Corners7
16Fouls11
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.790.68
cards avg (last 5)2.800.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu
Miguel Cardoso
· Kayserispor
90'🟥Emmanuel Boateng · Konyaspor
coach days38.00130.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.206.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.606.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.894.17
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.16
dominance (last 5)0.440.45
elo1435.531516.79
elo momentum (last 5)-30.603.11
eye test v1-0.07-0.44
eye trend v10.110.05
first sub minute (last 10)57.9066.70
form points (last 5)2.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.881.18
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.670.71
league points22.0034.00
league rank19.007.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.009.00
matches since win7.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2075.20
possession avg (last 5)47.8048.40
rest days7.007.83
scorer concentration0.240.22
season ppg0.921.26
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.20-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.4010.80
skill v1-0.11-0.17
solidity v1-0.88-1.15
sot against avg (last 5)6.006.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.40
state index-1.03-0.25
sterile dominance v1-0.210.02
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.260.26
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.441.88
xg for avg (last 5)1.581.44