← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Feb 2, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Pakkan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 70% | 82% | 1.36 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 19% | 13% | 5.61 | fair |
| Rizespor win | 11% | 5% | 9.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rizespor −1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Fenerbahce −1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.55 |
| Under | 38% | 2.57 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | İsmail Yüksek · Fenerbahce |
| -5' | 🟨 | Mert Hakan Yandaş · Fenerbahce |
| 6' | ⚽ | Ali Sowe · Rizespor |
| 13' | ⚽ | Ali Sowe · Rizespor |
| 21' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Olawoyin · Rizespor |
| 37' | 🟨 | Attila Mocsi · Rizespor |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sofyan Amrabat · Fenerbahce |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Olawoyin · Rizespor |
| 45' | 🟥 | Ibrahim Olawoyin · Rizespor |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Edin Dzeko · Fenerbahce |
| 72' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 36 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fenerbahce | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi |
| 🟨 |
| Ali Sowe · Rizespor |
| 77' | 🟨 | Rachid Ghezzal · Rizespor |
| 78' | 🟨 | Rachid Ghezzal · Rizespor |
| 78' | 🟥 | Rachid Ghezzal · Rizespor |
| 79' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · Fenerbahce |
| 84' | 🟨 | İrfan Can Kahveci · Fenerbahce |
| 89' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Fenerbahce |
| 90' | 🟨 | Youssef En-Nesyri · Fenerbahce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 246.00 | 612.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.38 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1853.15 | 1505.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.33 | 5.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| league points | 60.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 2.83 | 7.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | 0.90 |
| solidity v1 | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 29.22 | 27.50 |
| state index | 1.17 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 0.93 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 2.01 |