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Fenerbahce 3–2 Goztep

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 26, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Karaoğlan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win58%1.65
Draw24%4.10
Goztep win18%5.48

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Goztep −153%1.83
Fenerbahce −147%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.71
Under44%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Novatus Miroshi · Goztep
25'⚽Juan Santos da Silva · Goztep
45'🟨Youssef En-Nesyri · Fenerbahce
46'⚽Youssef En-Nesyri · Fenerbahce
50'🟨Anthony Junior Dennis · Goztep
53'⚽Youssef En-Nesyri · Fenerbahce
55'⚽Oğuz Aydın · Fenerbahce
69'🟨Filip Kostić · Fenerbahce
82'⚽Novatus Miroshi · Goztep
90'🟨Oğuz Aydın · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots15
6On target6
4Corners4
16Fouls25
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceGoztep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.35
box share (last 5)0.820.73
cards avg (last 5)1.200.80
coach days239.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi
452.00
congestion 21d5.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.14
corner diff avg (last 5)6.800.00
corners against avg (last 5)2.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)8.805.80
corners volatility (last 10)4.141.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.05
dominance (last 5)0.730.57
elo1817.381515.41
elo momentum (last 5)11.1842.58
eye test v11.290.66
eye trend v10.06-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)58.4059.40
form points (last 5)13.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.602.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.631.65
h2 goals (last 10)1.701.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.820.68
league points57.0040.00
league rank1.006.00
matches since blank0.0015.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6064.40
possession avg (last 5)53.6041.40
rest days2.937.23
scorer concentration0.240.21
season ppg2.381.74
shot diff avg (last 5)10.604.40
shots for avg (last 5)17.2015.60
skill v10.94-0.78
solidity v11.061.37
sot against avg (last 5)3.602.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.205.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)7.005.40
squad age30.13—
state index1.220.50
sterile dominance v10.10-1.98
threat rate (last 10)0.250.37
threat rate (last 3)0.280.35
threat rate (last 5)0.280.38
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20
xg against avg (last 5)0.750.73
xg for avg (last 5)2.232.04