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Bodrumspor 0–1 Eyupspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 26, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Ergün

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bodrumspor win38%2.54
Eyupspor win32%3.10
Draw30%3.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eyupspor −0.2555%1.78
Bodrumspor −0.2545%2.17

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.78
Over46%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Tayfur Bingöl · Eyupspor
40'🟨Luccas Claro · Eyupspor
56'🟨Ege Bilsel · Bodrumspor
59'🟨Halil Akbunar · Eyupspor
75'🟨Berke Özer · Eyupspor
77'🟨Melih Kabasakal · Eyupspor
78'🟨Prince Ampem · Eyupspor
89'🟨Yalçın Kayan · Eyupspor
90'🟨Ondřej Čelůstka · Bodrumspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
17Shots5
2On target1
7Corners2
14Fouls14
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBodrumsporEyupspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.37
box share (last 5)0.610.65
cards avg (last 5)2.202.40
coach days117.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGrey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu
666.00
congestion 21d3.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.14
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.007.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.606.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.742.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.05
dominance (last 5)0.580.48
elo1458.691582.91
elo momentum (last 5)5.477.99
eye test v10.070.66
eye trend v10.350.31
first sub minute (last 10)51.9060.30
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
keeper form v1—0.85
league points20.0038.00
league rank20.006.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4080.40
possession avg (last 5)42.2052.60
rest days8.006.88
scorer concentration0.400.34
season ppg0.871.65
shot diff avg (last 5)3.40-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.8013.80
skill v1-0.650.78
solidity v11.08-0.12
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.004.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.006.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.20
state index-0.220.32
sterile dominance v1-1.070.13
threat rate (last 10)0.280.23
threat rate (last 3)0.300.30
threat rate (last 5)0.320.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00
xg against avg (last 5)0.791.33
xg for avg (last 5)1.212.10