← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 25, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: B. Pakkan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sivasspor win | 43% | 46% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Kayserispor win | 28% | 26% | 3.56 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sivasspor −0.25 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Kayserispor −0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.95 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Rey Manaj · Sivasspor |
| 10' | ⚽ (og) | Onurcan Piri · Sivasspor |
| 23' | 🟥 | Stéphane Bahoken · Kayserispor |
| 33' | 🟨 | Garry Rodrigues · Sivasspor |
| 44' | 🟨 | Carlos Mané · Kayserispor |
| 45' | ⚽ | Garry Rodrigues · Sivasspor |
| 46' | ⚽ | Duckens Nazon · Kayserispor |
| 76' | 🟨 | Efkan Bekiroğlu · Sivasspor |
| 77' | ⚽ | Emrah Başsan · Sivasspor |
| 79' | 🟨 | Joseph Attamah · Kayserispor |
| 86' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sivasspor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu |
| 🟨 |
| Joseph Attamah · Kayserispor |
| 86' | 🟥 | Joseph Attamah · Kayserispor |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aylton Boa Morte · Kayserispor |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rey Manaj · Sivasspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 55.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1507.06 | 1470.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.41 | -25.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| league points | 24.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 4.73 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -0.31 |
| solidity v1 | -0.93 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 30.52 | 31.12 |
| state index | -1.02 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.03 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.19 |