⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Trabzonspor 4–0 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Mon, Jan 20, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Z. Küçük

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win61%1.57
Draw22%4.33
Sivasspor win17%6.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor −150%1.93
Sivasspor −150%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.53
Under37%2.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'🟨Uroš Radaković · Sivasspor
6'⚽Arseniy Batagov · Trabzonspor
13'⚽Simon Banza · Trabzonspor
29'🟨Bengali-Fodé Koita · Sivasspor
31'⚽Ozan Tufan · Trabzonspor
86'⚽John Lundstram · Trabzonspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
14Shots12
6On target3
7Corners3
20Fouls7
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.24
box share (last 5)0.590.60
cards avg (last 5)1.803.00
coach days141.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePapara Park
50.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-4.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.206.80
corners for avg (last 5)7.002.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.161.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.13
dominance (last 5)0.570.45
elo1585.841511.36
elo momentum (last 5)7.09-27.73
eye test v10.72-0.77
eye trend v1-0.01-0.57
first sub minute (last 10)59.1057.00
form points (last 5)6.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.690.92
h2 goals (last 10)1.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.680.63
league points29.0024.00
league rank10.0016.00
matches since blank17.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.009.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0080.20
possession avg (last 5)58.8047.60
rest days8.178.27
scorer concentration0.280.15
season ppg1.321.09
shot diff avg (last 5)3.60-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)16.0010.80
skill v10.77-0.26
solidity v1-1.05-0.59
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.003.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.331.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.802.80
squad age27.20—
state index0.52-0.68
sterile dominance v10.340.10
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.240.18
threat rate (last 5)0.290.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.991.45
xg for avg (last 5)1.500.87