← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Mon, Jan 13, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Tonusluoğlu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 68% | 59% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 24% | 4.99 | value: +21% |
| Konyaspor win | 13% | 17% | 8.49 | value: +44% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce +1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Konyaspor +1.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.60 |
| Under | 40% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Pedrinho · Konyaspor |
| 10' | 🟨 | Dušan Tadić · Fenerbahce |
| 14' | ⚽ | Mert Müldür · Fenerbahce |
| 25' | ⚽ | Çağlar Söyüncü · Fenerbahce |
| 29' | 🟨 | Oğulcan Ülgün · Konyaspor |
| 44' | ⚽ | Blaž Kramer · Konyaspor |
| 60' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · Fenerbahce |
| 63' | 🟨 | Filip Kostić · Fenerbahce |
| 90' | 🟨 | Melih Bostan · Konyaspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Konyaspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu |
| coach days | 104.00 | 226.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 5.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1542.24 | 1846.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.68 | -12.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| league points | 29.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | -0.02 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 29.90 | 29.97 |
| state index | 0.17 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.24 |