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Besiktas 2–1 Bodrumspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Jan 11, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Türkmen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win61%1.55
Draw22%4.49
Bodrumspor win17%5.96

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas −153%1.93
Bodrumspor −147%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over55%1.75
Under45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'⚽Cher Ndour · Besiktas
40'⚽Ciro Immobile · Besiktas
85'🟨Rafa Silva · Besiktas
90'🟨Ali Aytemur · Bodrumspor
90'⚽George Pușcaș · Bodrumspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
8Shots17
5On target4
4Corners12
8Fouls6
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasBodrumspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.28
box share (last 5)0.700.69
cards avg (last 5)1.001.40
coach days10.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueTüpraş Stadyumu
102.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.05
corner diff avg (last 5)3.40-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.881.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.10
dominance (last 5)0.480.46
elo1542.711461.21
elo momentum (last 5)-34.10-10.12
eye test v10.26-0.66
eye trend v10.420.87
first sub minute (last 10)54.9051.70
form points (last 5)2.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.470.85
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.40
keeper form v10.710.77
league points28.0019.00
league rank8.0020.00
matches since blank9.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win5.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2071.20
possession avg (last 5)52.8041.20
rest days7.966.13
scorer concentration0.200.33
season ppg1.330.90
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.4010.40
skill v10.08-1.08
solidity v1-0.04-0.21
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.002.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.20
squad age30.34—
state index-0.39-0.57
sterile dominance v10.21-0.93
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.220.33
threat rate (last 5)0.250.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.471.58
xg for avg (last 5)1.280.93