← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 5, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Çakır
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 84% | 1.13 |
| Draw | 11% | 10.50 |
| Hatayspor win | 5% | 22.38 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hatayspor −2.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Fenerbahce −2.5 | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 71% | 1.36 |
| Under | 29% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Rui Pedro · Hatayspor |
| 16' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Fenerbahce |
| 33' | ⚽ | Bilal Boutobba · Hatayspor |
| 45' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Fenerbahce |
| 55' | 🟨 | Sofyan Amrabat · Fenerbahce |
| 77' | 🟨 | Sebastian Szymański · Fenerbahce |
| 85' | 🟨 | Fred · Fenerbahce |
| 85' | 🟨 | Vincent Aboubakar · Hatayspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Erce Kardeşler · Hatayspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oguzhan Matur · Hatayspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 4 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fenerbahce | Hatayspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| coach days | 218.00 |
| venue | Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi |
| 4.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 10.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.35 | 1.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1806.20 | 1355.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.07 | -39.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.69 |
| league points | 45.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 12.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | -0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.60 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 30.42 | — |
| state index | 0.72 | -1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 0.99 |