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Fenerbahce 2–1 Hatayspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 5, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Çakır

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win84%1.13
Draw11%10.50
Hatayspor win5%22.38

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor −2.553%1.85
Fenerbahce −2.547%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over71%1.36
Under29%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Rui Pedro · Hatayspor
16'⚽Youssef En-Nesyri · Fenerbahce
33'⚽Bilal Boutobba · Hatayspor
45'⚽Youssef En-Nesyri · Fenerbahce
55'🟨Sofyan Amrabat · Fenerbahce
77'🟨Sebastian Szymański · Fenerbahce
85'🟨Fred · Fenerbahce
85'🟨Vincent Aboubakar · Hatayspor
90'🟨Erce Kardeşler · Hatayspor
90'🟨Oguzhan Matur · Hatayspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
18Shots4
9On target2
7Corners1
8Fouls7
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceHatayspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.28
box share (last 5)0.610.59
cards avg (last 5)1.202.00
coach days218.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi
4.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.06
corner diff avg (last 5)10.00-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)1.406.40
corners for avg (last 5)11.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)5.351.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.13
dominance (last 5)0.640.50
elo1806.201355.51
elo momentum (last 5)-29.07-39.09
eye test v1-0.03-0.30
eye trend v1-0.33-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)53.1057.50
form points (last 5)7.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-2.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.890.92
h2 goals (last 10)1.600.40
h2h win rate (last 5)1.000.00
keeper form v10.800.69
league points45.0010.00
league rank3.0021.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet8.0013.00
matches since win1.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4077.80
possession avg (last 5)56.0052.60
rest days15.9612.96
scorer concentration0.210.23
season ppg2.250.50
shot diff avg (last 5)6.600.00
shots for avg (last 5)16.4013.40
skill v10.66-0.11
solidity v10.60-0.18
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.904.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.00
squad age30.42—
state index0.72-1.36
sterile dominance v10.450.12
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.220.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.131.31
xg for avg (last 5)1.080.99