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Bodrumspor 1–1 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Jan 5, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Y. Kol

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bodrumspor win46%2.08
Draw29%3.36
Kayserispor win25%3.91

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bodrumspor −0.2555%1.78
Kayserispor −0.2545%2.14

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.85
Over47%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Taulant Seferi · Bodrumspor
48'⚽Stéphane Bahoken · Kayserispor
53'🟨Taylan Antalyalı · Bodrumspor
54'🟨Gökhan Sazdağı · Kayserispor
56'🟨Miguel Cardoso · Kayserispor
76'⚽Cenk Şen · Bodrumspor
85'🟨Julian Jeanvier · Kayserispor
90'🟨Lionel Carole · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots8
4On target3
6Corners6
10Fouls13
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBodrumsporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.30
box share (last 5)0.730.64
cards avg (last 5)1.802.80
coach days96.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGrey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu
4.00
congestion 21d1.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.206.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.207.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.331.99
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.21
dominance (last 5)0.420.45
elo1463.301449.76
elo momentum (last 5)-0.69-26.15
eye test v1-0.50-0.49
eye trend v10.320.17
first sub minute (last 10)52.6059.30
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-2.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.403.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.94
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
keeper form v10.770.56
league points18.0020.00
league rank20.0019.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.0075.80
possession avg (last 5)39.2046.40
rest days13.8814.00
scorer concentration0.380.21
season ppg0.901.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.60-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.8011.20
skill v1-1.00-0.42
solidity v1-0.60-1.92
sot against avg (last 5)4.607.20
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.40
state index-0.43-0.86
sterile dominance v1-0.99-0.20
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.280.23
threat rate (last 5)0.280.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.841.95
xg for avg (last 5)1.121.14