← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 3, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Ergün
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rizespor win | 38% | 25% | 2.59 | fair |
| Besiktas win | 35% | 47% | 2.75 | value: +31% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.54 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rizespor +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Besiktas +0 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.76 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Felix Uduokhai · Besiktas |
| 38' | ⚽ (og) | Gedson Fernandes · Rizespor |
| 42' | 🟨 | Amir Hadžiahmetović · Rizespor |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mithat Pala · Rizespor |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ernest Muçi · Besiktas |
| 56' | 🟨 | Husniddin Alikulov · Rizespor |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jonas Svensson · Besiktas |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rachid Ghezzal · Rizespor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rizespor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Çaykur Didi Stadyumu |
| coach days | 582.00 | 2.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 4.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1500.92 | 1554.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.41 | -17.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 24.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 12.17 | 13.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | 0.24 |
| solidity v1 | 0.87 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.96 | 27.50 |
| state index | 0.07 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.82 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.39 |