← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Fri, Jan 3, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Z. Küçük
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor win | 44% | 41% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Konyaspor win | 27% | 30% | 3.72 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Konyaspor −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Gaius Makouta · Alanyaspor |
| 13' | 🟨 | Oğulcan Ülgün · Konyaspor |
| 41' | 🟨 | Yusuf Özdemir · Alanyaspor |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ui-Jo Hwang · Alanyaspor |
| 45' | 🟨 | Adil Demirbağ · Konyaspor |
| 54' | ⚽ | Sergio Córdova · Alanyaspor |
| 56' | 🟨 | Marko Jevtović · Konyaspor |
| 67' | 🟨 | Sergio Córdova · Alanyaspor |
| 74' | 🟨 | Muhammet Tunahan Tasci · Konyaspor |
| 90' | ⚽ | Blaž Kramer · Konyaspor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alanyaspor | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | GAIN Park Stadium |
| coach days | 63.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1544.47 | 1550.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.50 | 10.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| league points | 21.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 13.04 | 20.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.87 |
| solidity v1 | 0.46 | -0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.47 | 30.86 |
| state index | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 0.84 |