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Trabzonspor 1–0 Bodrumspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 22, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Ergün

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor win55%1.75
Draw26%3.83
Bodrumspor win20%4.93

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Trabzonspor −0.7552%1.98
Bodrumspor −0.7548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.80
Under46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Ali Şahin Yılmaz · Trabzonspor
52'🟨Diogo Sousa · Bodrumspor
80'🟨Anthony Nwakaeme · Trabzonspor
86'⚽Pedro Malheiro · Trabzonspor
87'🟨Pedro Malheiro · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Batista Mendy · Trabzonspor
90'🟨Gökdeniz Bayrakdar · Bodrumspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots12
5On target5
8Corners4
16Fouls12
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTrabzonsporBodrumspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.22
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.24
box share (last 5)0.750.68
cards avg (last 5)1.601.60
coach days112.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venuePapara Park
82.00
congestion 21d4.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.200.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)7.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.872.64
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.11
dominance (last 5)0.580.44
elo1576.641468.81
elo momentum (last 5)-26.45-10.96
eye test v10.74-1.07
eye trend v10.140.14
first sub minute (last 10)55.5050.80
form points (last 5)2.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.84
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.50
keeper form v10.670.61
league points23.0018.00
league rank13.0020.00
matches since blank14.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8074.40
possession avg (last 5)53.4040.80
rest days5.928.96
scorer concentration0.280.38
season ppg1.210.95
shot diff avg (last 5)4.40-4.00
shots for avg (last 5)17.209.20
skill v10.70-0.96
solidity v1-1.16-0.58
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.002.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.402.40
squad age27.20—
state index-0.29-0.47
sterile dominance v1-0.28-0.49
threat rate (last 10)0.280.25
threat rate (last 3)0.340.21
threat rate (last 5)0.320.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.701.82
xg for avg (last 5)1.890.84