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Sivasspor 0–0 Samsunspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 21, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Şansalan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Samsunspor win44%2.17
Sivasspor win28%3.51
Draw28%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Samsunspor +0.2552%1.88
Sivasspor +0.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.93
Under49%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

38'🟨Arbnor Muja · Samsunspor
40'🟨Rick Van Drongelen · Samsunspor
49'🟨Charis Charisis · Sivasspor
65'🟨Garry Rodrigues · Sivasspor
84'🟨Carlo Holse · Samsunspor
88'🟨Rey Manaj · Sivasspor
90'🟨Rey Manaj · Sivasspor
90'🟥Rey Manaj · Sivasspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots17
2On target6
2Corners10
9Fouls14
4Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSivassporSamsunspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.39
box share (last 5)0.570.69
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
coach days20.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu
173.00
congestion 21d3.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.60-3.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.206.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.602.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.431.34
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.08
dominance (last 5)0.380.50
elo1511.401599.48
elo momentum (last 5)-42.95-15.23
eye test v1-0.680.49
eye trend v1-0.30-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)50.1061.30
form points (last 5)1.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.581.35
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.90
keeper form v10.650.66
league points22.0038.00
league rank12.004.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.001.00
matches since win7.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.4076.80
possession avg (last 5)45.0044.80
rest days7.8313.10
scorer concentration0.160.19
season ppg1.102.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.60-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.4012.80
skill v1-0.540.07
solidity v1-1.340.13
sot against avg (last 5)6.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.00
state index-0.920.10
sterile dominance v1-0.29-0.59
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.27
threat rate (last 5)0.240.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20
xg against avg (last 5)2.001.14
xg for avg (last 5)1.091.90