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Alanyaspor 3–0 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Dec 14, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Kargın

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win56%1.70
Draw24%4.10
Gaziantep win20%5.16

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor −0.7552%1.89
Gaziantep −0.7548%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.60
Under40%2.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Christophe Lungoyi · Gaziantep
37'🟨Nicolas Janvier · Alanyaspor
45'🟨Fidan Aliti · Alanyaspor
53'🟨Bruno Viana · Gaziantep
54'⚽Fidan Aliti · Alanyaspor
71'🟨Quentin Daubin · Gaziantep
88'⚽Ui-Jo Hwang · Alanyaspor
90'⚽Ui-Jo Hwang · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
20Shots8
6On target1
6Corners1
7Fouls13
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.42
box share (last 5)0.550.59
cards avg (last 5)3.202.20
coach days43.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGAIN Park Stadium
288.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.15
corner diff avg (last 5)3.00-4.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.207.80
corners for avg (last 5)7.203.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.09
dominance (last 5)0.520.40
elo1518.581511.50
elo momentum (last 5)-13.6026.87
eye test v1-0.36-0.04
eye trend v10.50-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)55.5061.10
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
keeper form v10.710.63
league points17.0021.00
league rank20.0015.00
matches since blank0.0010.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0075.00
possession avg (last 5)55.8046.00
rest days6.134.96
scorer concentration0.400.24
season ppg0.941.31
shot diff avg (last 5)1.20-4.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.0010.60
skill v10.11-0.44
solidity v10.60-0.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.60
squad age—31.06
state index-0.200.02
sterile dominance v10.60-0.18
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.230.24
threat rate (last 5)0.220.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.131.31
xg for avg (last 5)0.901.22