← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 8, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Ergün
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor win | 38% | 39% | 2.54 | fair |
| Alanyaspor win | 34% | 33% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Alanyaspor +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Fatih Aksoy · Alanyaspor |
| 31' | 🟨 | Efecan Karaca · Alanyaspor |
| 49' | 🟨 | Kartal Kayra Yılmaz · Kayserispor |
| 51' | ⚽ | Aylton Boa Morte · Kayserispor |
| 66' | ⚽ | Carlos Mané · Kayserispor |
| 70' | 🟨 | Gökhan Sazdağı · Kayserispor |
| 80' | 🟨 | Onurcan Piri · Kayserispor |
| 87' | 🟨 | Dimitris Kolovetsios · Kayserispor |
| 87' | 🟨 | Florent Hadergjonaj · Alanyaspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ramazan Civelek · Kayserispor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kayserispor | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu |
| coach days | 68.00 | 37.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1480.23 | 1542.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.73 | -21.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| league points | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | -0.96 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 31.66 | 28.78 |
| state index | -0.41 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.81 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.14 |