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Hatayspor 1–1 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Mon, Dec 2, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Sağlam

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win46%2.08
Hatayspor win28%3.55
Draw26%3.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hatayspor +0.553%1.83
Besiktas +0.547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.64
Under41%2.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨Ersin Destanoğlu · Besiktas
29'⚽Görkem Sağlam · Hatayspor
41'⚽Ciro Immobile · Besiktas
42'🟨Erce Kardeşler · Hatayspor
44'🟨Rui Pedro · Hatayspor
53'🟨Rigoberto Rivas · Hatayspor
56'🟨Salih Uçan · Besiktas
57'🟨Görkem Sağlam · Hatayspor
58'🟨Vincent Aboubakar · Hatayspor
61'🟨Kamil Ahmet Çörekçi · Hatayspor
62'🟨Lamine Diack · Hatayspor
65'🟨Rafa Silva · Besiktas
73'🟨Cemali Sertel · Hatayspor
86'🟨Abdulkadir Parmak · Hatayspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots11
4On target2
6Corners9
16Fouls11
9Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHataysporBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.25
box share (last 5)0.630.74
cards avg (last 5)2.000.80
coach days92.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMersin Stadyumu
184.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.352.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.11
dominance (last 5)0.540.45
elo1401.291564.20
elo momentum (last 5)-0.66-28.69
eye test v1-0.07-0.45
eye trend v10.36-0.44
first sub minute (last 10)53.2055.00
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.670.69
league points8.0022.00
league rank21.009.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0082.40
possession avg (last 5)51.4058.40
rest days8.173.97
scorer concentration0.200.20
season ppg0.571.47
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.2011.80
skill v10.350.76
solidity v1-0.05-1.25
sot against avg (last 5)4.606.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.00
squad age—29.10
state index-0.39-0.38
sterile dominance v1-0.010.97
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.320.19
threat rate (last 5)0.270.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.261.91
xg for avg (last 5)1.571.30