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Fenerbahce 3–1 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Mon, Dec 2, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Akarsu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win82%1.17
Draw11%9.22
Gaziantep win7%16.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce −258%1.67
Gaziantep −242%2.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over74%1.29
Under26%3.72

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟨İsmail Yüksek · Fenerbahce
3'⚽Oğuz Aydın · Fenerbahce
32'🟨Kenan Kodro · Gaziantep
41'⚽David Okereke · Gaziantep
72'🟨Samet Akaydın · Fenerbahce
78'⚽Rodrigo Becão · Fenerbahce
87'🟨Mert Müldür · Fenerbahce
87'🟨Bruno Viana · Gaziantep
89'⚽Edin Dzeko · Fenerbahce
90'🟨Sebastian Szymański · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
17Shots6
4On target2
17Corners3
8Fouls10
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.510.49
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.500.46
box share (last 5)0.670.67
cards avg (last 5)1.201.80
coach days184.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi
276.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.18
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.803.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.002.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.10
dominance (last 5)0.610.48
elo1832.341506.00
elo momentum (last 5)5.0943.44
eye test v11.560.36
eye trend v10.160.20
first sub minute (last 10)56.8061.70
form points (last 5)12.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)3.202.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.581.03
h2 goals (last 10)1.900.90
h2h win rate (last 5)1.000.00
keeper form v10.720.63
league points35.0018.00
league rank4.0015.00
matches since blank20.008.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4076.00
possession avg (last 5)51.6049.00
rest days3.889.17
scorer concentration0.190.25
season ppg2.331.29
shot diff avg (last 5)6.80-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)17.8012.40
skill v10.90-0.16
solidity v1-0.24-0.06
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.804.80
sot for avg (last 3)7.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)7.205.40
squad age30.1031.06
state index1.300.30
sterile dominance v1-0.19-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.260.26
threat rate (last 3)0.290.27
threat rate (last 5)0.290.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.821.44
xg for avg (last 5)2.471.34