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Rizespor 3–0 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Dec 1, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Kargın

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor win56%1.71
Draw24%4.00
Kayserispor win20%5.11

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rizespor −0.7551%1.92
Kayserispor −0.7549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.73
Under44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'🟨Aylton Boa Morte · Kayserispor
41'⚽Emrecan Bulut · Rizespor
44'🟨Stéphane Bahoken · Kayserispor
69'🟨Giannis Papanikolaou · Rizespor
71'⚽Ali Sowe · Rizespor
72'🟨Ivo Grbić · Rizespor
72'🟨Kartal Kayra Yılmaz · Kayserispor
75'🟨Stéphane Bahoken · Kayserispor
75'🟥Stéphane Bahoken · Kayserispor
79'🟨Ali Sowe · Rizespor
81'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots8
6On target2
3Corners8
9Fouls11
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.27
box share (last 5)0.760.73
cards avg (last 5)3.602.80
coach days549.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
Ali Sowe
· Rizespor
83'🟨Mithat Pala · Rizespor
61.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.006.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.123.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.13
dominance (last 5)0.450.53
elo1494.551475.92
elo momentum (last 5)48.8115.70
eye test v1-0.31-0.19
eye trend v10.65-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)56.3054.70
form points (last 5)12.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.600.64
league points20.0017.00
league rank12.0017.00
matches since blank5.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0077.40
possession avg (last 5)51.6049.40
rest days8.108.00
scorer concentration0.250.18
season ppg1.251.13
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.201.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.2013.60
skill v10.36-0.07
solidity v10.77-0.45
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.704.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.60
state index0.380.10
sterile dominance v10.69-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.190.27
threat rate (last 3)0.230.29
threat rate (last 5)0.190.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.20
xg against avg (last 5)0.981.70
xg for avg (last 5)1.361.31