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Alanyaspor 2–1 Trabzonspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 30, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Pakkan

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor win43%2.23
Trabzonspor win30%3.27
Draw27%3.58

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alanyaspor −0.2550%1.94
Trabzonspor −0.2550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.80
Under47%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Denis Drăguş · Trabzonspor
11'🟨Yusuf Özdemir · Alanyaspor
33'🟨Nuno Lima · Alanyaspor
37'🟨Batista Mendy · Trabzonspor
44'⚽ (pen)Florent Hadergjonaj · Alanyaspor
45'🟨Ertuğrul Taşkıran · Alanyaspor
50'⚽Loide Augusto · Alanyaspor
69'🟨Yusuf Özdemir · Alanyaspor
69'🟥Yusuf Özdemir · Alanyaspor
82'🟨Richard Cândido · Alanyaspor
87'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots16
4On target3
5Corners10
15Fouls15
5Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlanyasporTrabzonspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.180.28
box share (last 5)0.570.75
cards avg (last 5)2.202.80
coach days29.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGAIN Park Stadium
John Lundstram
· Trabzonspor
90'🟨Uğurcan Çakır · Trabzonspor
90.00
congestion 21d1.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.12
corner diff avg (last 5)5.003.60
corners against avg (last 5)2.003.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.006.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.892.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.11
dominance (last 5)0.510.56
elo1523.531603.09
elo momentum (last 5)-33.76-21.89
eye test v1-0.920.28
eye trend v10.390.20
first sub minute (last 10)56.5052.30
form points (last 5)2.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.76
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
keeper form v10.670.74
league points14.0021.00
league rank20.0011.00
matches since blank1.009.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win7.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4082.00
possession avg (last 5)54.0057.20
rest days6.134.96
scorer concentration0.440.31
season ppg0.881.50
shot diff avg (last 5)1.402.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.2015.80
skill v10.160.83
solidity v10.42-0.57
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.704.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.204.40
squad age—27.87
state index-0.570.19
sterile dominance v10.620.39
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.30
threat rate (last 5)0.220.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.041.54
xg for avg (last 5)0.951.70