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Besiktas 2–4 Goztep

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 24, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Akarsu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win58%1.66
Draw24%3.94
Goztep win18%5.57

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas −0.7553%1.85
Goztep −0.7547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.88
Under48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Semih Kılıçsoy · Besiktas
9'⚽ (og)Malcom Bokele · Besiktas
12'⚽Malcom Bokele · Goztep
32'⚽Taha Altıkardeş · Goztep
64'🟨Jonas Svensson · Besiktas
82'⚽David Datro Fofana · Goztep
90'⚽David Tijanič · Goztep

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
12Shots18
3On target9
4Corners4
8Fouls12
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBesiktasGoztep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.34
box share (last 5)0.700.59
cards avg (last 5)0.802.40
coach days176.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueTüpraş Stadyumu
389.00
congestion 21d3.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.831.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.10
dominance (last 5)0.480.54
elo1602.561431.35
elo momentum (last 5)-10.9731.83
eye test v1-0.460.67
eye trend v1-0.180.07
first sub minute (last 10)58.2051.00
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
keeper form v10.700.74
league points22.0018.00
league rank7.0011.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0070.20
possession avg (last 5)54.6046.40
rest days14.0014.23
scorer concentration0.210.24
season ppg1.571.64
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.802.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.0014.40
skill v10.68-0.35
solidity v1-0.790.19
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.205.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.40
squad age29.41—
state index-0.050.03
sterile dominance v10.69-1.41
threat rate (last 10)0.230.36
threat rate (last 3)0.220.43
threat rate (last 5)0.210.37
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.751.09
xg for avg (last 5)1.141.80