← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Tonusluoğlu
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 64% | 66% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.82 | value: +4% |
| Kayserispor win | 15% | 13% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor +1.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Fenerbahce +1.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ (pen) | Dušan Tadić · Fenerbahce |
| 9' | 🟨 | Ramazan Civelek · Kayserispor |
| 12' | 🟨 | Baran Ali Gezek · Kayserispor |
| 15' | ⚽ | Oğuz Aydın · Fenerbahce |
| 19' | 🟨 | Alexander Djiku · Fenerbahce |
| 26' | ⚽ | Oğuz Aydın · Fenerbahce |
| 43' | ⚽ (og) | Alexander Djiku · Kayserispor |
| 56' | ⚽ | Dimitris Kolovetsios · Kayserispor |
| 63' | ⚽ | Youssef En-Nesyri · Fenerbahce |
| 64' | 🟨 | Mert Hakan Yandaş · Fenerbahce |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 16 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 10 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Kayserispor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu |
| 74' |
| 🟨 |
| Duckens Nazon · Kayserispor |
| 74' | 🟨 | Samet Akaydın · Fenerbahce |
| 84' | 🟨 | Miguel Cardoso · Kayserispor |
| 85' | ⚽ | Filip Kostić · Fenerbahce |
| 88' | ⚽ | Sebastian Szymański · Fenerbahce |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 53.00 | 175.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 3.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1499.48 | 1859.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.15 | -10.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | 1.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| league points | 17.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 14.83 | 12.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 1.08 |
| solidity v1 | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 29.92 | 29.67 |
| state index | 0.19 | 1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 2.11 |