← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sat, Nov 23, 10:30 AM UTC · ref: A. Şansalan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eyupspor win | 41% | 65% | 2.39 | value: +56% ⚠ |
| Rizespor win | 31% | 11% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rizespor −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Eyupspor −0.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.89 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Babajide David Akintola · Rizespor |
| 27' | ⚽ | Ahmed Kutucu · Eyupspor |
| 34' | 🟨 | Taşkın Ilter · Eyupspor |
| 45' | 🟨 | Melih Kabasakal · Eyupspor |
| 55' | ⚽ | Dal Varešanović · Rizespor |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ahmed Kutucu · Eyupspor |
| 70' | 🟨 | Dal Varešanović · Rizespor |
| 75' | ⚽ | Ali Sowe · Rizespor |
| 77' | 🟨 | Robin Yalçın · Eyupspor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Samu Sáiz · Eyupspor |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eyupspor | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu |
| 🟨 |
| Giannis Papanikolaou · Rizespor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivo Grbić · Rizespor |
| 90' | 🟨 | Attila Mocsi · Rizespor |
| 90' | 🟥 | Amir Hadžiahmetović · Rizespor |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 602.00 | 541.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1564.88 | 1499.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.30 | 27.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.56 |
| league points | 26.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 13.77 | 13.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 0.47 |
| solidity v1 | 0.76 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 29.83 | 26.91 |
| state index | 0.54 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.36 |