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Fenerbahce 4–0 Sivasspor

← Süper Lig 2024-25 · Sun, Nov 10, 04:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Sağlam

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win82%1.17
Draw12%8.50
Sivasspor win7%15.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce −253%1.83
Sivasspor −247%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over69%1.39
Under31%3.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨Bengali-Fodé Koita · Sivasspor
15'🟨Keita Baldé · Sivasspor
24'⚽Samet Akaydın · Fenerbahce
43'🟨Charis Charisis · Sivasspor
53'🟨Đorđe Nikolić · Sivasspor
54'⚽ (pen)Dušan Tadić · Fenerbahce
59'🟨Achilleas Poungouras · Sivasspor
80'🟨Noah Sonko Sundberg · Sivasspor
82'⚽Sofyan Amrabat · Fenerbahce
84'🟨Samet Akaydın · Fenerbahce
90'⚽Allan Saint-Maximin · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
24Shots6
8On target1
8Corners5
11Fouls15
1Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceSivasspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.46
box share (last 5)0.770.65
cards avg (last 5)1.802.40
coach days162.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi
345.00
congestion 21d5.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.24
corner diff avg (last 5)3.601.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.206.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.331.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.17
dominance (last 5)0.600.46
elo1813.331559.64
elo momentum (last 5)-21.4826.11
eye test v10.740.21
eye trend v10.210.27
first sub minute (last 10)58.8052.30
form points (last 5)8.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.803.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.49
h2 goals (last 10)1.301.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
keeper form v10.760.74
league points29.0020.00
league rank4.008.00
matches since blank20.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.007.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2078.80
possession avg (last 5)53.4044.00
rest days2.838.23
scorer concentration0.280.19
season ppg2.231.54
shot diff avg (last 5)6.40-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)17.8010.20
skill v10.81-0.26
solidity v10.10-0.77
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.805.00
squad age30.39—
state index0.600.31
sterile dominance v10.13-0.25
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.290.26
threat rate (last 5)0.270.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.491.83
xg for avg (last 5)1.731.25